2025 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election

October 10th, 2025

This poll was conducted by Independent Insights to address the lack of pre-election polling coverage in Newfoundland and Labrador ahead of the October 14th, 2025 Provincial election. This poll was a student-led project that was self-commissioned and self-funded. The purpose of the survey was to identify political trends and issues important to voters in the province. 

The survey was conducted Sep 28 - Oct 10, 2025, reaching potential respondents through online social media ads. The sample size was 230 respondents, with five responses not being considered due to being submitted by ineligible voters. Poll advertising attempted to reach a representative sample, however, there were significant differences in response rates across demographics. 

Responses were weighted in order to accurately represent the surveyed population, the weighting variables used were: sex (Male, Female, Other), age (18–24,25–34,35–44,45–54,55–64,65+), and region (Avalon, Central/West Newfoundland, Labrador). Weights were applied to account for over- or under-representation, resulting in an an effective sample size (nₑff) of 112.9. The maximum margin of error is ±9.22 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The following questions were asked to respondents and are reported in the results:

If the provincial election were held today in Newfoundland and Labrador, for which party would you vote?

• Liberal Party

• Progressive Conservative (PC)

• New Democratic Party (NDP)

• Other

• Undecided

 Which issue is the most important to you in regards to deciding your vote? 

• Cost-of-living

• The economy

• Taxation

• Crime

• Healthcare

• Housing access/affordability

• Education

• Social Issues

• Climate Change and the Environment

• Indigenous Relations

• Candidate personality/trustworthiness

• Other

We find that, among our respondents, the progressive conservative party holds an unexpected lead. However, with less than a week left until the election, nearly 20% of voters still remain undecided, meaning that the race is still competitive.

Among the voters we surveyed, cost-of-living, followed closely by healthcare, was the most important issue. Together, these two issues represent the primary concern for 48.5% of respondents. The economy, taxation, crime, climate and environmental issues, and candidate personality/trustworthiness all recieved significant representation. 

The full results, along with regional distributions, are linked in the PDF below.